Early season has been a mess for me, both in the comments section and my Bovada balance. But last week we went 6/10 against the spread on college games, and are creeping our way towards .500 for what has largely been a disastrous start. So, as I promised last week, though I didn’t make the high school cross country team, I’m headed for a hell of a run.
Here are 4 picks for Week 4:
Michigan State vs. Indiana
Line: MSU -7
Ok, talk about your senseless overreaction. I discussed extensively before the season my thoughts on impending doom for the Spartans, picking their over seven total wins as the prop bet of the year. After a road win against what has turned out to be a horrible Notre Dame team, prognosticators hot take’d their way to an impending MSU playoff berth. The Fighting Borislows thought differently, however, smashing the offensively inept Spartans on their home turf by a margin wide enough to give DeVry delusions of a clean sweep of the State of Michigan this weekend in Ann Arbor.
What’s the prescription for an ailing offense? A dumpster fire of a defense. Conveniently, here comes Indiana for Mark Dantonio & Co. Did Vegas not see Indiana surrender 400+ yards at home in a loss to Wake fucking Forest? Coach Kevin Wilson has consistently fielded the sort of sieve defense that makes instant Heisman contenders out of conference foes. The Spartans have won a staggering 9/10 games following a loss under Dantonio, and have defeated Indiana by an average of three touchdowns.
Saturday will be more of the same as the Spartans rush for 300 yards in a comfortable win.
Pick: MSU 34 Indiana 17
Toledo vs. BYU
Line: BYU -3.5
Pick: BYU (Buy hook to 3 if available)
BYU is the best 1-3 team in America, perhaps of the past several years. The Cougars have lost three games by a combined 7 points, all to Top 25 caliber opponents. Toledo, in their first season since the departure of coach Matt Campbell to Iowa State, haa started 3-0 for just the fourth time in school history, though horrendous competition leaves little known about the Rockets. Look, BYU is a damn good team. Taysom Hill is nearly 30 years old but has survived his dozen or so injuries with above average athleticism, a strong arm, and the sort of intangibles that just make you root for the kid. BYU gets after the quarterback with an athletic defensive line, and has found a consistent running game behind emerging feature back Jamaal Williams.
With home field advantage, the most veteran quarterback since the immortal Chris Weinke, and a decided advantage on both lines, BYU wins this one in a moment of relief for first-year coach Kalani Sitake. And the Romney family rejoices.
Pick: BYU 30 Toledo 17
Oklahoma vs. TCU
Line: Oklahoma -3
The best word to describe TCU is soft. Charmin soft. Kenny Hill puts up gaudy numbers in games that don’t matter, which was nice for Fanduel, but not his head coaches. Gary Patterson, supposedly a defensive-minded coach, effectively ushered in the basketball on grass defensive ineptitude that has now consumed the Big 12 conference. This year’s version of the Horned Frogs might be the softest, without Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson to bail out a historically weak defense and questionable offensive line. This team struggles to run the ball, and conversely stop opponent running backs.
So, Bob Stoops, I am begging you: run the fucking ball. Oklahoma has an experienced and talented line, phenomenal backs lead by Semaje Perine (who holds the NCAA record for most rushing yards in one game but now goes largely underused), and a mobile QB in Baker Mayfield willing to put his head down and run. If they want, and Stoops lets them, the Sooners could run for 350+ against the thin TCU front, though this depends on Stoops abandoning his run-and-gun Baylor impersonation for a week.
Please, Bob, I need this cash.
Pick: Oklahoma 44 TCU 30
Texas vs. Oklahoma State
Line: Total 70.5
Pick: OVER 70.5
This game will be absolutely shameful, especially considering Charlie Strong’s reputation as a supposed defensive mastermind. Oklahoma State, one of the worst running teams in the nation, will throw 50-60 times against a suspect Texas secondary that surrendered seven touchdowns to an awful Notre Dame team. The Cowboys have allowed 400+ yards and 4+ touchdowns in every game this season, a mark of ineptitude matched only eclipsed by Kansas in defensive ineptitude within their conference.
So, instead of sweating the spread as this track meet nears 100 total points, take the gift Vegas has offered us in some sort of sacrifice to Texas’ imagined defensive prowess. I think Oklahoma State pulls off the upset, but they’ll need 50 points to do it. Either way, there’ll be at least 10 touchdowns in this matchup of defensive cluster fucks.
Pick: Oklahoma State 48 Texas 41.
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