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Heisman Odds: Biggest Jumps, Falls, And Frontrunners

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The Heisman race is on, and it’s cooking like Bobby Flay on the Food Network. There are some clear favorites, but one bad game, or terrible loss can change the landscape of the race.

First thing’s first: Let’s dig into the preseason odds and compare them to right now.

All current odds via

Biggest Jumps/Falls

Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State – Preseason: +2500, Current: +300

Over three games, Rudolph has an 11:1 pick ratio and 1,135 passing yards. Mason and #6 OSU are putting up a ridiculous 54 points per game, but they have yet to play a tough opponent. Rudolph will finally be tested this weekend vs. #16 TCU, so it will be interesting to see if he stays as hot as Emily Ratajkowski’s Instagram.

Later in the season, there is potential that the Heisman race could be decided when OSU squares off against Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma. Rudolph is a top three candidate at the moment, and now you have an excuse to root for one of the most exciting teams in the NCAA if you ride the action.

J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State – Preseason: +800, Current: +2500

Barrett’s year has been a little less disappointing than having to wait 382 days for the next season of Game Of Thrones, and that’s saying something. It’s safe to say his Heisman chances are cooked.

There is no way J.T. turns it around, as his play has been utterly atrocious. He was a top five Heisman candidate heading into the season, then he burned out faster than Matthew Perry after Friends ended. Yikes.

Royce Freeman, Oregon – Preseason: N/A, Current: +2300

Royce Freeman is an experienced senior at Oregon who has been around since the Marcus Mariota days. During his sophomore year, he went for 2,184 all purpose yards and 19 total touchdowns. After three games this season, Freeman has 569 all purpose yards and 9 touchdowns. That’s more insane than Britney Spears in 2007 and my ability to make decade-old references.

If the Ducks continue to win games and Royce continues to kill it, he may have a shot at the Heisman. It’s still a full-court chuck up, though.


Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma – Preseason: +800, Current: +200

Starting the season as the third favorite, Baker Mayfield now finds himself sober (maybe) and the frontrunner to win the Heisman. His odds have trimmed down significantly since he’s planted his flag in the middle of Ohio State’s field, and he currently has 1,046 passing yards, a 76.8 completion percentage, 10 TDs and 0 INTs. That’s more efficient than popping an adderall on a Sunday night and finishing all of your upcoming week’s homework.

Mayfield is one of the most exciting players in the NCAA, and if Oklahoma can continue to light teams up, he is a lock for the Heisman. Again, watch out for November 4 when Mayfield and Rudolph square off in the battle for Oklahoma. That game should be insane and could decide the Heisman if a lot doesn’t change before then.

Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State – Preseason: +2500, Current: +300. See above in Biggest Jumps.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville – Preseason: +800, Current: +400

Lamar Jackson plays like Mike Vick in Madden ’04, but he’s going to need a lot of help to repeat winning the Heisman. After suffering a loss to Clemson last week, a lot of people think Jackson’s Heisman candidacy is over. The only shot he has to take home the trophy is if Oklahoma and Oklahoma State botch their seasons and fall off harder than Vanilla Ice, but anything can happen.

+400 is great value on a guy that literally makes me watch Louisville every week just to witness one dude play football, but NCAAF is insanely hard to forecast, so I still think he’s in the hunt. Send some cash on the most fun player to watch in the game right now, but there’s a good chance you’re just ripping your money in half at this point.

Sam Darnold, QB, USC – Preseason: +400, Current: +450

To be completely honest, I hate Sam Darnold’s Heisman chances even though he’s still a top five candidate right now. The preseason favorite has already thrown six interceptions this year, and he barely pulled out a win at home against Texas last week. #5 USC does have an easier schedule this year, but I don’t see them staying there for the remainder of the season. Fade Sam Darnold more than you would fade an 8 a.m. class that doesn’t take attendance.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State University – Preseason: +700, Current: +800

Barkley has 548 all purpose yards and five TDs through three games. Saquon and the #4 ranked Nittany Lions are title contenders this year, and if he leads them to the promised land he has a legitimate shot at bringing home the award.

I like Barkley more than Lamar Jackson this year due to PSU’s chances on making a run in the College Football Playoffs. Taking Saquon to win Heisman is like a DeAndre Jordan free throw; it’s definitely going to need some help from the rim, but there’s a chance it goes in. +800 is ridiculous value on a guy who is as explosive as Barkley.

Well, the Heisman race still has a ways to go so log your picks now to get the best value possible. I personally like Saquon Barkley and Baker Mayfield to take home the award, but then again I’m the guy that posted about Bo Scarbrough’s Heisman chances, and now he’s more irrelevant than MySpace.

So ride or fade; either way someone is taking home the Heisman and there is a lot of money to be made.

Image via Shutterstock

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Mookie Bets

Mush bettor, juul addict, and a millennial to blame.

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